Approximate Hierarchical Bayes for Online Decision-Making

Suppose you’re choosing a continuous value x and observing a noisy reward y. The reward depends on x through some unknown function f(x), and you’re making decisions repeatedly—learning as you go. This post explores how to build scalable Bayesian models for this problem using principled approximations.

An Empirical Bayes Approach to Churn Estimation

Everyone Wants a Churn Model

Rarely do I ever get asked to make churn estimates for someone who needs to bring the full power of a proportional hazards model to bear. Besides, the person asking for churn estimates doesn’t actually want to know “what is the probability someone churns eventually?” (Spoiler: it’s 1.)

Use Exact Tests for Nested Experimental Designs

A Motivating Example

We were studying how microglia affect neuronal networks using a standard imaging experiment: 3 mice, 3 coverslips per condition, about 20 neurons measured per coverslip. Our question: Does LPS activation significantly increase PNA signal?