Blog

Here you’ll find posts about my research, thoughts on science, and things I’ve written elsewhere.

An Empirical Bayes Approach to Churn Estimation

Update, August 2026: I no longer stand behind this approach. The model below measures how surprising a user’s silence is against their own history, and in production that turned out to flag the users least likely to leave. I’ve written up what went wrong and what replaced it in Churn Risk Is a Conditional Rate. The original post is left as written.